Application of the nonlinear autoregressive model with exogenous inputs for river level forecast in the Amazon

The present work is justified by three basic lines that involve the problem of the theme, which are the use of Artificial Intelligence, the problem of floods in the Amazon and the issue of technology in favor of decision making. The environmental impacts caused by economic and social factors are problems portrayed in scenarios such as floods and ebbs of rivers, bringing up situations such as an increase in diseases, reduction of agricultural production in locations that depend on accurate geological control, in addition to the increase in erosive processes. in risk locations. Thus, the use of AI to predict the river level, which consequently can minimize problems arising from floods that cause an environmental impact, is highly possible, since when it is known in advance that an event is close to happening, decisions can be taken so that the impacts be smaller. This work models and applies NARX to forecast the river level in the Amazon with variables of easy access and implementation through the MATLAB software, in order to contribute with a forecast model capable of predicting a possible flood from the river level.

Maintenance Management with Application of Computational Intelligence Generating a Decision Support System for the Load Dispatch in Power Plants

The development of a computational tool to support the decision of load dispatch according to the operational conditions of motors and generators of power plants is proposed, which are classified in relation to the probabilities of faults by a fuzzy system developed in this text, from indicators obtained from the analysis of lubricating oil, vibration analysis, and thermography of power generation equipment. The basis for the study is based on the principle of operation and operational conditions of the equipment to be dispatched for generation in a power plant, in addition to its particularities as specific consumption and the polluting emission for each equipment. In this way, this work aims not only to provide the tools to monitor these equipment but also, based on the management reports of vibration, temperature, and oil analysis, take corrective actions to maintain the necessary reliability and achieve the quality of the service through a preclearance procedure that takes into account the operating conditions of the equipment, obtaining performance indicators of the plan

Multi-Objective Optimization Techniques to Solve the Economic Emission Load Dispatch Problem Using Various Heuristic and Metaheuristic Algorithms

The main objective of thermoelectric power plants is to meet the power demand with the lowest fuel cost and emission levels of pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions, considering the operational restrictions of the power plant. Optimization techniques have been widely used to solve engineering problems as in this case with the objective of minimizing the cost and the pollution damages. Heuristic and metaheuristic algorithms have been extensively studied and used to successfully solve this multi-objective problem. This chapter, several optimization techniques (simulated annealing, ant lion, dragonfly, NSGA II, and differential evolution) are analyzed and their application to economic-emission load dispatch (EELD) is also discussed. In addition, a comparison of all approaches and its results are offered through a case study

Modelo matemático para otimização multiobjetivo do despacho econômico ambiental de usinas térmicas usando o NSGA-II

One of the priority tasks for thermoelectric plants is to supply the requested energy demand, ensuring the lowest possible cost. This task is more important in the Northern Region of Brazil, especially in the Industrial Hub of Manaus (PIM) and in the city itself, where a large part of this energy is supplied by Thermoelectric Power Plants (UTE). The selection of generators and their work regime is known as the Economic Dispatch (DE). The essential objective of ED is to operate UTEs by meeting demand at the lowest possible cost of fuel. However, the worldwide concern about pollution caused by fossil fuels in recent times to minimize fuel costs can not be considered the only objective to be achieved in the UTEs and limiting the emission of pollutants has become another primary objective. Thus, the Environmental Economic Dispatch (DEA) appears, which seeks not to reduce costs, but also emissions. To solve the optimization of this task there are several deterministic as well as heuristic methods. One of the most used methods according to the literature is the Genetic Algorithm of Non-dominated Classification, NSGA-II, considering two objective functions, a function of fuel cost and another quantity function. In this thesis, the proposed solution has the following contributions: it develops a new and unprecedented function to evaluate the environmental contamination produced by the UTEs that, in addition to minimizing the amount of pollutants, takes into account the influence of pollutants more harmful to the environment. This function, called the Emissions Index, is applied to the engines of two UTEs in the city of Manaus with satisfactory results. The Emissions Index and the traditional fuel cost function is optimized using the NSGA-II, determining optimal solutions for output power in several characteristic and non-characteristic scenarios of the plants, and can be applied to any thermoelectric plant. In order to analyze the viability of the solution proposed by this thesis, a set of ten thermal generating units of a UTE of the city of Manaus and the IEEE 118-bar System were used as case studies, demonstrating the robustness of the proposal in what refer to the solution presented. These results were significant considering the Emissions Index and using the optimization procedure of the non-dominated classification algorithm II (NSGA-II). This new DEA methodology enables specialists in the area to reduce costs and generate generation planning.Uma das tarefas prioritárias para as usinas termelétricas é fornecer a demanda de energia solicitada garantindo o menor custo possível. Esta tarefa possui ainda mais importância na Região Norte do Brasil, principalmente no Polo Industrial de Manaus (PIM) e na própria cidade, onde uma grande parte desta energia é fornecida por Usinas Termelétricas (UTE). A seleção dos geradores e o seu regime de trabalho se conhece como Despacho Econômico (DE). O objetivo essencial do DE é operar as UTE satisfazendo a demanda ao menor custo de combustível possível. Entretanto, a preocupação mundial com a poluição causada pelos combustíveis fósseis nestes últimos tempos a minimizar o custo de combustível não pode ser considerado o único objetivo a atingir nas UTEs e limitar a emissão de poluentes tornou-se outro objetivo primordial. Assim, surge o Despacho Econômico Ambiental (DEA), que procura não diminuir os custos, mas também as emissões. Para resolver a otimização desta tarefa existem diversos métodos tanto determinísticos como heurísticos. Um dos métodos mais utilizados segundo a literatura é o Algoritmo Genético de Classificação Não-dominado, NSGA-II, considerando duas funções objetivos, uma função de custo de combustível e outra função de quantidade de emissões. Nesta tese, a solução proposta tem as seguintes contribuições: desenvolve uma nova e inédita função para avaliar a contaminação ambiental produzida pelas UTEs que além de minimizar a quantidade de poluentes, leva em consideração a influência dos poluentes mais nocivos para o meio ambiente. Essa função denominada Índice de Emissões é aplicada aos motores de duas UTEs da cidade de Manaus com resultados satisfatórios. O Índice de Emissões e a função tradicional custo de combustível é otimizada usando o NSGA-II, determinando soluções ótimas para a potência de saída em diversos cenários característicos e não característicos das usinas, podendo ser aplicado a qualquer termelétrica. Para analisar a viabilidade da solução proposta por esta tese, utilizaram-se um conjunto de dez unidades geradoras térmicas de uma UTE da cidade de Manaus e o Sistema de 118-barras do IEEE como estudos de caso, demonstrando a robustez da proposta no que se referem à solução apresentada. Tais resultados foram significativos, considerando Índice de Emissões e utilizando o procedimento de otimização do algoritmo de classificação não dominada II (NSGA-II). Esta nova metodologia do DEA viabiliza aos especialistas da área a redução de custos e planejamento de geração

The emission index as a parameter for assessing the environmental pollution from thermal power plants.: Case study

In power plants, in addition to electricity, a lot of air pollution by exhaust gases are generated. There are many national and international standards that establish the permissible limits of different substances, but still has not been developed a mathematical expression to evaluate the environmental impact caused by all components of the exhaust gases as a whole. A method to evaluate this impact is developed in this paper. The developed mathematical expression was called "emission rate". Emission rates for gas engines and fuel oil engines are offered. To get a better idea of the environmental impact of each type of engine was also developed the "specific emission index", which is the emission rate divided by the power delivered by the engine. Comparisons between specific emission rates of different engines are offered by means of a case study in a power plant in the city of Manaus.En las plantas generadoras de electricidad, además de la energía eléctrica, se generan contaminantes del aire por los gases de escape. Hay normas nacionales e internacionales que establecen los límites permisibles de diferentes sustancias, pero no existe una expresión matemática para evaluar el impacto ambiental producido por todos los componentes de los gases como un todo. En este trabajo se desarrolla un procedimiento para evaluar este impacto. A la expresión matemática desarrollada se le denominó "índice de emisiones". Se ofrecen los índices de emisiones para motores de gas y de Fueloil. Para tener una idea exacta del impacto ambiental de cada tipo de motor se desarrolló también el "índice de emisiones específicas", que es la tasa de emisión dividida por la potencia del motor. Se ofrecen comparaciones entre los índices de emisión específicos de los motores a través de un estudio de caso de una planta generadora de electricidad en la ciudad de Manaus

El índice de emisiones como parámetro para evaluar la contaminación ambiental de las Centrales Térmicas. Estudio de caso

En las plantas generadoras de electricidad, además de la energía eléctrica, se generan contaminantes del aire por los gases de escape. Hay normas nacionales e internacionales que establecen los límites permisibles de diferentes sustancias, pero no existe una expresión matemática para evaluar el impacto ambiental producido por todos los componentes de los gases como un todo. En este trabajo se desarrolla un procedimiento para evaluar este impacto. A la expresión matemática desarrollada se le denominó "índice de emisiones". Se ofrecen los índices de emisiones para motores de gas y de Fueloil. Para tener una idea exacta del impacto ambiental de cada tipo de motor se desarrolló también el "índice de emisiones específicas", que es la tasa de emisión dividida por la potencia del motor. Se ofrecen comparaciones entre los índices de emisión específicos de los motores a través de un estudio de caso de una planta generadora de electricidad en la ciudad de Manaus.In power plants, in addition to electricity, a lot of air pollution by exhaust gases are generated. There are many national and international standards that establish the permissible limits of different substances, but still has not been developed a mathematical expression to evaluate the environmental impact caused by all components of the exhaust gases as a whole. A method to evaluate this impact is developed in this paper. The developed mathematical expression was called "emission rate". Emission rates for gas engines and fuel oil engines are offered. To get a better idea of the environmental impact of each type of engine was also developed the "specific emission index", which is the emission rate divided by the power delivered by the engine. Comparisons between specific emission rates of different engines are offered by means of a case study in a power plant in the city of Manaus

El índice de emisiones como parámetro para evaluar la contaminación ambiental de las Centrales Térmicas. Estudio de caso

En las plantas generadoras de electricidad, además de la energía eléctrica, se generan contaminantes del aire por los gases de escape. Hay normas nacionales e internacionales que establecen los límites permisibles de diferentes sustancias, pero no existe una expresión matemática para evaluar el impacto ambiental producido por todos los componentes de los gases como un todo. En este trabajo se desarrolla un procedimiento para evaluar este impacto. A la expresión matemática desarrollada se le denominó "índice de emisiones". Se ofrecen los índices de emisiones para motores de gas y de Fueloil. Para tener una idea exacta del impacto ambiental de cada tipo de motor se desarrolló también el "índice de emisiones específicas", que es la tasa de emisión dividida por la potencia del motor. Se ofrecen comparaciones entre los índices de emisión específicos de los motores a través de un estudio de caso de una planta generadora de electricidad en la ciudad de Manaus